When is the best time to see the aurora?

Photo taken inside of a glacier on April 14th, 2022. This ice cave has partially collapsed since.

The hard truth is nobody knows for sure exactly when the best day will be. I've seen breathtaking aurora displays during every single month of the season, but my favorite time of all is April. Read to the end to find out why.

​Within a roughly 3-day time horizon, some forecasts are reasonably accurate for predicting Kp levels, but these don't translate into accurate Northern Lights predictions very well for interior Alaska. Beyond that timeline, outlooks are typically highly inaccurate for both Kp and aurora borealis in interior Alaska.  Asking what day is going to be the best, weeks or months out, is like asking for advice on which lottery ticket you should buy (except with Fairbanks Aurora Tours, odds are stacked in your favor, not against you).

The aurora has a high degree of variation from night to night, and ultimately, watching it is like fishing; you need to put your line or dipnet in the water and be patient. For aurora viewing, that means going outside around solar midnight, getting away from light pollution, and looking and waiting for the magic to begin. It also must be dark outside. As far north as Fairbanks, Alaska, we only get civil twilight at "night" near the summer solstice, so about two months on either side of it are typically not suitable for aurora viewing. Therefore, the best time to come is anytime between August 21st and April 21st, when you have time and the means to. Nobody is getting any younger. Seize the day. 

Solar activity?

Scientists have identified, in general, that there is better alignment of the polarity of the solar wind with earth's geomagnetic field slightly after the equinoxes when comparted with the solstices. This should result in, on average, 20-30%, more induction of the solar wind and an increased chance of active aurora. Therefore, even though the solar wind is not affected by Earth's seasons, because our magnetic alignment with the solar wind changes quasi-seasonally, the months close to the equinox (that is, September, October, March, and April) have better odds of active aurora.

What about weather patterns?

This is something that people rarely ask about, but is far more important than any solar trend. From my perspective, the worst weather conditions are that in which it is raining or snowing. Dry is better. Based on the data, the driest time of the entire aurora season is from April 11th to April 20th, where on average there is 0.00 inches of precipitation! It is also very close to the Spring Equinox. Unfortunately, there is a pervasive myth that the aurora magically and suddenly disappears on April 1st, so few travelers come up to enjoy this time. Generally, though, as the aurora season progresses, the historic average precipitation falls. Our summer is our wet season, and August / September catches the tail end of it.

Conclusion​

The best time to come is when you are able to from August 21- April 21. Should you have the luxury of picking your time and not having it dictated by practical life considerations, I suggest April for the following reasons.
1. It is slightly after an equinox, when the aurora is slightly more likely to be active.
2. The weather has the driest streak of historical weather during the entire season, and as a month it is the driest of them all.
3. It is far warmer than the other months (except August and September, but they get a lot more precipitation)
4. Since there is a myth that the aurora magically disappears on April 1st, far fewer people come to enjoy the lights, which means:
    A. Flights are typically less crowded and cheaper.
    B. Hotels are typically less crowded and cheaper.
5. Lastly, did I mention it is likely to be warmer, drier, less expensive, less crowded, and have slighlty increased odds of active aurora?