Live Solar Wind Data
NOAA SWPC Aurora 30 Minute Forecast
The NOAA SWPC Aurora Forecast utilizes measured real-time solar wind data to create a relatively accurate short-term aurora prediction tool. Despite the name, it is predictive for about one hour out. When the colored areas turn bright green, yellow, or, better yet, red, it means the odds of Aurora activity are very high. This model is reliable when interpreted correctly and is often repackaged in 3rd party apps.
The TruthThe truth is, there is no reliably accurate and consistent way to predict the aurora more than about 1 hour into the future, but the good news is:
In interior Alaska night skies, the aurora borealis or northern lights come out just about every single night near solar midnight. It is extremely rare for the northern lights not to be visible or photographable due to poor space weather, regardless of prior "predictions." |
Kp PredictionsThe Planetary K Index, also known as Kp is a measurement of how compressed Earth's magnetosphere is, on a global basis. It does not measure our local conditions. Kp is critical for aurora viewing in lower latitudes than Fairbanks because high Kp Index readings indicate that the aurora can temporarily occur at lower latitudes than normal.
Our local K Index in Fairbanks, officially called the "College Station K Index," measures the local magnetic conditions. It often varies wildly from the Planetary K Index, especially during peak viewing hours when it matters most. We often see our local K Index at 5 or 6 or higher when the Kp is only at a 2. Unfortunately, local K Index predictions do not exist. If you plan on using Kp to predict aurora activity in Fairbanks, AK, expect Kp or Planetary K to have a very weak predictive power for our local conditions in Fairbanks. We do not recommend using Kp predictions for high latitude aurora prediction because of their low accuracy; we use the live feed of measured space weather instead. But, we know some of you will insist on using Kp anyway, so here are the best practices: You should consider a 2 to be average to slightly below average, and a 3 to be average to above average. Twos and threes are the most common predictions. 3 Day Kp ForecastNOAA 3-Day Forecast is updated two times per day, and it gives Kp predictions for each 3-hour time slot of the day for the next 3 days. It is made in UTC, so for interior Alaska interpretation, look at the next calendar day at the 06-09UT and 09-12UT. This corresponds to approximately 9 pm to 3 am local time the night before. The 3 Day forecast is decent at predicting Kp levels, but has a low accuracy for predicting Fairbanks aurora activity ahead of time.
27 Day Kp OutlookNOAA 27-Day Outlook is updated once per week. To interpret for Alaska time, use the next calendar day ahead because it is in UTC. The outlook has low accuracy for predicting future Kp values and very poor ability to predict local aurora conditions ahead of time.
Third-party sources that put out Kp predictions are repackaging predictions from NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. This includes the University of Alaska Fairbanks Aurora Forecast. Other Resources |
What About the Moon?
|
Active northern lights/aurora borealis can be seen well and thoroughly enjoyed, regardless of the moon's phase.
Photography
It is often extremely helpful to have some moonlight, as the moon will naturally illuminate the landscape for your pictures. Moon rise and set can be particularly interesting as they create a "golden hour" around the set or rise.
Viewing
Strictly speaking, for viewing purposes, it is better to have less moonlight than more, as it can enable you to see extremely dim details in the aurora. Too much moonlight can make it difficult to see low-quality or dim aurora displays with the naked eye. We have found our guests struggle to enjoy dim aurora displays, even when there is no moonlight in the sky.
We have a strong preference to have some moon in the sky, but it is clear from guest booking behavior over the last decade that there is a market preference for less moon. As a result, our tours are often at or near capacity near a new moon, so it is wise to reserve your spot early.
Photography
It is often extremely helpful to have some moonlight, as the moon will naturally illuminate the landscape for your pictures. Moon rise and set can be particularly interesting as they create a "golden hour" around the set or rise.
Viewing
Strictly speaking, for viewing purposes, it is better to have less moonlight than more, as it can enable you to see extremely dim details in the aurora. Too much moonlight can make it difficult to see low-quality or dim aurora displays with the naked eye. We have found our guests struggle to enjoy dim aurora displays, even when there is no moonlight in the sky.
We have a strong preference to have some moon in the sky, but it is clear from guest booking behavior over the last decade that there is a market preference for less moon. As a result, our tours are often at or near capacity near a new moon, so it is wise to reserve your spot early.
To understand the moon conditions for any given night, one must ask oneself 3 questions:
1. Will the moon be in the sky when I want to look for the aurora?
2. If so, when will the moon be in the sky? The moon rise and set times will tell you this; they are not regular like sunrise and sunset.
3. Lastly, if the moon will be up, how much of it will be illuminated?
Unfortunately, a traditional moon calendar only answers question #3, the least important of the 3. The moon can be below the horizon for an entire night of aurora viewing and be as much as 80-90% illuminated, or it can be up in the sky all night long with 1% illumination. Further down on this page, we have provided links for our custom moon calendar that answer these questions from an aurora viewer's perspective in more detail.
1. Will the moon be in the sky when I want to look for the aurora?
2. If so, when will the moon be in the sky? The moon rise and set times will tell you this; they are not regular like sunrise and sunset.
3. Lastly, if the moon will be up, how much of it will be illuminated?
Unfortunately, a traditional moon calendar only answers question #3, the least important of the 3. The moon can be below the horizon for an entire night of aurora viewing and be as much as 80-90% illuminated, or it can be up in the sky all night long with 1% illumination. Further down on this page, we have provided links for our custom moon calendar that answer these questions from an aurora viewer's perspective in more detail.
|
Aurora Moon Calendar
2025-26 Season Effective no moon to minimal moon conditions for the 2025-2026 season are:
August 21-31, 2025 September 1-2 & 17-30, 2025 October 15-29, 2025 November 13-26, 2025 December 12-25, 2025 January 9-22, 2026 February 7-20, 2026 March 7-21, 2026 April 4-20, 2026 |
2026-2027 Season Calendar is coming soon.
|
Moon Lit AuroraThe earthly landscape is very easy to see and easy to enjoy all the details when the moon is out. The moon can also be incorporated into the composition of the image, as it is in several of the images below.
|
Moon Rise / SetMoon rise and sets create time during the tour with moon-lit conditions, and no moon conditions, as well as a "golden hour" where the color of the moon light changes to a softer yellow to orange hue and bathes the landscape with long beautiful shadows.
|
No & Minimal MoonNo moon to minimal moon occurs when the moon is below the horizon and unable to shine light into our night sky or is above the horizon and is insignificantly illuminated, such as a crescent moon, which has no material impact on viewing dim aurora.
|